The GI/Panmure/Ellerslie and surrounds area encompasses the suburbs of Ellerslie, Glen Innes, Glendowie, Panmure, Point England, St Johns, Tamaki and Wai O Taiki Bay. This area acts as a more affordable entry point into the market whilst sharing a number of aspects that its neighbouring more exclusive eastern and beachside suburbs enjoy. Proximity to Auckland’s CBD and other employment hubs, recreation and entertainment amenity, combined with good access to public transport systems including the train station at Glen Innes add to the area’s appeal.
The desirability of the area is reflected in the lift in median values which have been evident since early 2014. In line with trends across the wider Auckland market, a consolidation in prices has been witnessed within the area over recent months.
Over the June 2018 quarter, sales values have bounced back reaching a median value of $915,000, up 2% from the prior March 2018 quarter. Transactional activity has also rebounded over the June 2018 quarter, up 45% compared with the March 2018 quarter figure.
Drivers off Peak but Remain Positive
Net migration into Auckland peaked in August 2017 and has since experienced a month-on-month decrease. The net inflow of 32,575 witnessed in July 2018, however, remains nearly three times above the historical average of 12,279. It remains likely that migrant flows will remain above long term averages due to chronic labour shortages in critical industries such as construction.
Based on projections from the 2013 census, the Maungakiekie-Tamaki local board area’s population is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.7% out to 2043.
Continued high migration, a shortage of housing supply and historically low interest rates, that are expected to remain in place for some time, continue to support residential values.
Wai O Taiki Bay is the most tightly held and sought after suburb within the area, generating the highest median value of $1,176,000 and witnessing just 12 transactions in the 12 months to June 2018. Ellerslie and Glen Innes are the most active suburbs in the market and also witnessed the second and third highest median values of $980,000 and $920,000 respectively over the 12 months to June 2018.
In addition to commanding the area’s highest median value, Wai O Taiki Bay also witnessed the largest value gain over the half year to June 2018, up 16% from the half year to December 2017. As witnessed across the Auckland region as a whole, value changes have become volatile over recent months, particularly when analysed on a suburb by suburb basis, given the relatively low sales volumes. In addition to Wai O Taiki Bay, Ellerslie and Panmure witnessed upward movement in median values over the 6 months to June while declines were noted in Point England and Glen Innes. In the latter case however, June quarter values rebounded, reaching $946,500 following a drop in the March quarter.
Spotlight: Glen Innes
Median sales values in the Glen Innes area fluctuate significantly when viewed on a quarterly basis due to the relatively small number of sales transacted in the area. Low sales volumes within the suburbs are a reflection of the fact that social housing dominates the areas housing stock and therefore open market sales are limited.
Area Tipped for Major Transformation
Over the next few years however, the landscape is set to change dramatically with Northern Glen Innes at the forefront of New Zealand’s largest regeneration project after Housing New Zealand divested themselves of 2,500 properties in the wider Tamaki area with just over 200 of these homes falling within the Northern Glen Innes area.
Major transformations are to be undertaken as a result of the housing redevelopment project by Housing New Zealand and their development partner Creating Communities. The transformative scheme will see existing state housing replaced providing a larger number of higher density houses providing social, affordable and open market homes.
A number of Creating Communities’ smaller catalyst projects have already been put to the market meeting with sales successes. These projects are, in part, responsible for the lift in median values recorded within the suburbs over recent months. As at the June quarter of 2018 the median stood at $946,500, up 6% on the December quarter of 2017 figure.
A supply response to the strong demand for housing in the Maungakiekie-Tamaki Ward is evident with the number of new building consents issued over the year to July 2018 totalling 769, up 60% from the total number in the year to July 2017. Consents for townhouse accommodation made up 29% of all consents issued in the year to July 2017 and 42% of all consents issued in the 12 months to July 2018. This represents a strong ongoing demand for townhouse accommodation, in part, driven by the Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan encouraging higher density housing and Creating Communities regeneration projects for the Northern Glen Innes and Wai O Taiki Bay suburbs.
GI/Panmure/Ellerslie Hot Spot Map – 12 Months to June 2018